India's Air Combat Future: Analyzing the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) Program

India's Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) program is a direct response to urgent strategic imperatives. The AMCA program is designed to counter a growing two-front threat from China and Pakistan and to reverse a critical decline in the Indian Air Force's (IAF) squadron strength. The program aims to develop India's first indigenous fifth-generation stealth fighter jet, placing India in an elite group of nations with this capability.

Success is central to India's 'Atmanirbhar Bharat' (self-reliant India) policy, a cornerstone of its national defense strategy, ending its dependency on foreign suppliers for critical military technology. This analysis explains the capabilities, challenges, and geopolitical significance of the fighter AMCA and India's future 6th-generation ambitions.

Why is India Developing a 5th-Generation Fighter Jet?

The AMCA is not a project of choice, but of necessity. It answers three distinct pressures: a hostile geopolitical environment, a shrinking air force, and a national policy of strategic independence with a 5th generation fighter.

How does the China-Pakistan axis drive this need?

India faces a unique two-front threat from a deepening Sino-Pakistani military alliance. This partnership extends beyond arms sales to include joint exercises and co-production. Between 2019 and 2023, Pakistan received 82% of its major arms imports from China, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). This includes advanced J-10C fighters.

More critically, Pakistan is expected to acquire Chinese J-31/FC-31 stealth fighters, directly challenging the IAF's technological edge. Simultaneously, China's own operational J-20 stealth fleet, alongside other generation fighter jets, creates a significant capability gap that India's current 4.5-generation aircraft cannot fully counter. The indigenous AMCA (fifth-generation fighter jet) is designed to restore this balance.

What is the state of the IAF's squadron strength?

The IAF faces a severe deficit in its fighter fleet. Its authorized strength is 42 squadrons, but its current number hovers around 31, as confirmed by government statements. This gap is widening as legacy MiG-21, Jaguar, and Mirage 2000 fleets are progressively retired. The production of AMCA (5th generation fighter jet) is the lynchpin of the IAF's plan to rebuild its numbers with a high-tech, indigenously produced platform through the 2030s and 2040s for the Indian Armed Forces.

How does 'Atmanirbhar Bharat' influence the program?

'Atmanirbhar Bharat' (self-reliant India) is a national doctrine to achieve strategic autonomy. For defense, it means ending reliance on foreign military hardware, which can be subject to sanctions or supply disruptions. This includes significant investment in defense research through bodies like the Defense Research and Development Organization.

Developing the AMCA indigenously avoids the restrictive end-user agreements and technology dependencies associated with importing foreign jets like the F-35. The decision, articulated by former IAF leadership, is to accept short-term risks for the long-term prize of a sovereign aerospace ecosystem, as reported by Indian defense media.

What Are the AMCA's Capabilities and Advanced Technologies?

The AMCA is a twin-engine, multi-role stealth multirole fighter designed around the core fifth-generation tenets of stealth, supercruise, and sensor fusion. The project is led by India's Aeronautical Development Agency (ADA).

In March 2024, India's Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS), with oversight from the Ministry of Defense, sanctioned ₹15,000 crore (approx. $1.8 billion USD) for prototype development. Following this, Defense Minister Rajnath Singh approved the advanced medium combat aircraft program execution model on May 30, 2025. An Expression of Interest (EOI) was released on June 18, 2025, to select an industry partnership for a new public-private development model (single-source). This program execution model is a significant step in the program.

Key AMCA features include:

• Geometric Stealth: A carefully shaped airframe with an internal weapons bay to minimize its radar cross-section (RCS). The use of internal weapons is a hallmark of fifth-generation design.

• Serpentine Air Intakes: S-shaped ducts that conceal the highly reflective jet engine fan blades from radar.

• Super cruise: The ability for sustained supersonic flight without afterburners, with a projected top speed of Mach 2.15.

• Sensor Fusion: An AI-powered system that integrates data from its advanced AESA radar and other advanced sensor technologies into a single, intuitive display for the pilot.

What is the difference between AMCA Mk1 and Mk2?

The program follows a pragmatic two-phase plan to manage technological risk. This approach isolates the challenges of airframe design from the even greater challenge of engine development. The AMCA Mk1 and AMCA Mk2 have different combat capabilities.

You can see the primary differences in the table below. Table 1: AMCA Mk1 vs. AMCA Mk2 Comparison

What is the AMCA Program Timeline and First Flight Target?

Based on official statements, the roadmap for India's fighter aircraft development is ambitious. The timeline below synthesizes key milestones for AMCA development and related programs. The first prototype is scheduled for 2028.

Table 2: India's Fighter Development Roadmap

What Are the Biggest Challenges Facing the AMCA's Execution Model?

Success is not guaranteed. The advanced medium combat aircraft program faces three critical hurdles that will determine its pace and ultimate outcome.

Why is the engine the biggest hurdle?

Developing a high-performance jet engine is the single greatest challenge. India lacks a mature engine industrial base; its past attempt, the Kaveri engine, failed to meet the required thrust for the Tejas platform, highlighting deep-seated challenges in metallurgy and manufacturing.

For the AMCA Mark 2, India needs a new 110 kN-class engine. AMCA requires a joint venture with a foreign partner. France's Safran is considered a frontrunner, reportedly offering a full transfer of technology and intellectual property rights (IPR), as noted by media reports. Securing full IPR is non-negotiable for achieving true self-reliance.

How does the public-private partnership model present a challenge?

The government's decision to form a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) with private companies represents a major policy shift. The approved the execution model for the advanced medium combat aircraft program, known as the combat aircraft program execution model, is a departure from relying solely on state-owned Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL).

However, private industry has expressed concerns that the system may still institutionally favor HAL, as reported by Indian media. Ensuring the program execution model through industry is a truly level playing field is essential. The model approach provides equal opportunities to both private and public sector Indian companies, which is essential to leverage efficiency and prevent the delays that have affected past projects.

What Are India's 6th-Generation Fighter Plans?

India plans for the air combat environment beyond 2040. The goal is to develop a successor to the Su-30MKI fleet, envisioning a "system of systems" approach.

How will manned-unmanned teaming work with CATS?

The core of 6th-generation warfare is Manned-Unmanned Teaming (MUM-T). A piloted fifth generation fighter will command a swarm of autonomous drones in various combat scenarios.

India's developing this capability through the Combat Air Teaming System (CATS) program. The centerpiece is the CATS Warrior, a jet-powered loyal wingman drone being co-developed by HAL and private startup NewSpace Research & Technologies. This system will allow unmanned platforms to perform high-risk missions like surveillance and initial strikes, increasing pilot safety and mission effectiveness. Developing CATS now is a strategic hedge, maturing the critical AI and autonomy technologies needed for a future generation fighter.

How Does the Fighter AMCA Compare to Global Competitors?

The AMCA is India's premier fifth-generation fighter program, designed to be a competitive multi-role platform that balances stealth, agility, and advanced systems. AMCA is expected to be a formidable stealth fighter jet.

Its most significant strategic advantage may be its cost. At a projected unit cost of $40-50 million (estimate), it is positioned to be far more affordable than the American F-35 ($80M+) or Chinese J-20 ($50M+). This affordability could allow the Indian Air Force and the Indian Navy to procure it in larger numbers, addressing its squadron deficit and creating a potent export opportunity.

The induction of the AMCA will reshape the regional military balance, providing a credible indigenous counter to Chinese and Pakistani platforms and significantly enhancing India's strategic autonomy. This aircraft program is the ultimate test of India's ambition to become a premier aerospace and defense power in the 21st century.