The Indus Waters Treaty 1960 (IWT) is a landmark agreement between India and Pakistan and one of history's most durable water-sharing pacts. However, this critical water treaty now faces an existential crisis. The treaty's rigid framework is ill-equipped to handle modern pressures from climate change, population growth, and renewed geopolitical friction between India and Pakistan. Tensions periodically rise, with calls for suspension of the Indus water agreement after events like the Pahalgam terror attack, straining the pact. India's recent call to modify this water treaty signals that over 60 years of established protocol for managing Indus water are under severe strain. The survival of the Indus Water Treaty now depends on its ability to adapt to a new geopolitical and environmental reality for Pakistan and India.
What is the Indus Waters Treaty and the Role of the Permanent Indus Commission?
The IWT, a key water treaty, is a World Bank-brokered agreement governing the rights and obligations of India and Pakistan concerning the waters of the Indus system. The history of the Indus waters is rooted in the need to manage the indus river system between India and Pakistan post-independence. Both nations signed the treaty in Karachi on September 19, 1960; on that day. Its primary objective was to resolve disputes over water for irrigation arising from the partition of India in 1947, which split the Indus River Basin and its vast irrigation network. The history of the Indus shows this treaty is unique because it does not allocate shares of total Indus water volume. Instead, it partitions the Indus river and its tributaries. The Permanent Indus Commission was also established as a bilateral body to oversee the implementation of the treaty.
Allocation of the Eastern Rivers and Western River
Eastern Rivers: India received exclusive use of water from the three eastern rivers—the Sutlej River, Beas, and Ravi. These waters of the eastern rivers account for roughly 33 million acre-feet (MAF), or less than 20% of the basin's total water flow. Western Rivers: Pakistan was allocated the three western rivers—Indus, Jhelum, and the Chenab River. These constitute the waters of the western rivers, approximately 135 MAF, over 80% of the total water flow to Pakistan. This allocation governs the flow to Pakistan. India, also, the upper riparian state, agreed to contribute over £62 million (a substantial sum when signed in 1960) to the Indus Basin Development Fund for the construction of replacement canals in Pakistan, as documented by the World Bank. This structure was central to the Indus Water Treaty with Pakistan.
Why Has the Indus Water Treaty with Pakistan Endured for Over 60 Years?
The Indus Water Treaty's resilience is primarily attributed to the Government of India's strict adherence to the terms of the treaty, even through multiple armed conflicts with Pakistan. As the upstream country, India could have used its significant strategic advantage, yet it has never used Indus water as a coercive tool. During the wars of 1965, 1971, and 1999, India continued to provide water to Pakistan, supply hydrological data, and respect Pakistan's water allocation as mandated by this treaty. This consistent, decades-long pledge from India to provide water created a stable, predictable environment for Indus water management, which allowed the water treaty to survive intense political hostility.
What Are the Primary Risks to the Survival of the Water Treaty?
The foundational stability of the Indus Water Treaty is eroding under the weight of three interconnected pressures: geopolitical deadlock, climate change, and structural obsolescence. These factors raise the risk of a potential suspension of the treaty.
Geopolitical Deadlock and the Court of Arbitration
Rising tensions between India and Pakistan have fueled recent disputes. Disagreements over Indian hydroelectric projects on the western rivers, such as the Kishenganga and Ratle projects, have exposed the treaty's vulnerability. The Government of India contends its projects are compliant "run-of-the-river" designs permitted by the treaty, allowing for specific water use without materially affecting the flow to Pakistan. The Government of Pakistan, however, has repeatedly challenged them, asserting its rights under the treaty over the waters of the western rivers and utilizing the pact's dispute resolution mechanisms. Pakistan wants to ensure its share of water from the western rivers is unaffected. This culminated in a procedural crisis when Pakistan demanded a Court of Arbitration while India sought a Neutral Expert. The dispute over which process to use for this western river issue became a major sticking point. In an unprecedented move, the World Bank allowed both a Court of Arbitration and a Neutral Expert process to proceed concurrently in 2022. India viewed this as a violation of the water treaty's graded, sequential approach to dispute resolution. In response, India's Ministry of External Affairs issued a formal notice in January 2023 calling for a review of the treaty, citing Pakistani "intransigence."
Climate-Induced Scarcity and the Indus River System
The Indus system of rivers is a global hotspot for climate change. Research published in journals like Nature and assessments by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) project that the Himalayan glaciers feeding the Indus River will melt rapidly, initially increasing water flow before a sharp, long-term decline in regional water supplies. This main source of water is under threat. The Indus Water Treaty was designed for a stable hydrology with predictable flows of Indus water. Its rigid river-partitioning model contains no mechanisms for managing prolonged droughts, reduced overall availability of water resources, or cooperative strategies to mitigate climate impacts. This makes the treaty structurally unprepared for the water scarcity crises that are likely to define the coming decades for Pakistan.
Structural Obsolescence and the Tributaries of the Indus
The framework of the treaty 1960 is a product of its time and the provisions of the treaty have several critical design flaws in the modern context. Exclusion of Stakeholders: The treaty is strictly bilateral, excluding China (the upstream source of the Indus) and Afghanistan. It also fails to account for the economic and developmental rights of the people in India's Jammu and Kashmir, a region whose hydropower potential is directly constrained by the IWT's technical restrictions on the usage of the Indus. Prevents Cooperative Development: The adversarial nature of the relationship has prevented joint projects for managing the tributaries of the Indus, such as sediment management or building new water storage capacity. This is critical as Pakistan's existing dams are rapidly losing capacity to siltation, a problem highlighted by multiple UN Development Programme reports.
What is the Path Forward for the Indus Basin between India and Pakistan?
The future of regional water stability requires moving beyond the current framework of the water treaty. There are two potential trajectories for the system between India and Pakistan.
Negative Trajectory: Suspension of the Treaty and Collapse
If India and Pakistan fail to renegotiate, the current path leads toward procedural breakdown and a potential suspension of the treaty. Some fear a scenario where India suspended the treaty if India announced that it would no longer abide by the pact, chose to hold the treaty in abeyance, or decided to withdraw from the treaty. A complete collapse of the Indus Water Treaty would create a highly unpredictable strategic environment where water flows into Pakistan are no longer governed by international law. Such a move by either India or Pakistan would dramatically increase the risk of conflict in a nuclear-armed region.
Positive Trajectory: Modernization and Adaptation of the Water Treaty
A sustainable future requires a modernized treaty. While it is not clear what India plans, key modifications would need to address: Climate Flexibility: Incorporate clauses that adjust water sharing based on climate-driven changes in the flow of the waters of the Indus River. Dispute Resolution: Reform the mechanism of the water treaty to prevent procedural deadlocks and focus on efficient, technical solutions. Expanded Scope: Create a new basin-wide framework that includes all riparian states and gives a voice to local stakeholders like Jammu and Kashmir, improving how India and Pakistan manage the river water. Data Transparency: Implement a system of joint, real-time hydrological monitoring to depoliticize data and build mutual trust over Indus water.
Conclusion: A Legacy in the Balance for the Indus Water Treaty
The Indus Waters Treaty in 1960 was a monumental diplomatic achievement, underwritten by India's decision to grant the downstream nation, Pakistan, the vast majority of the shared water resources. For over 60 years, the Government of India has upheld this pact with remarkable consistency, never unfairly restricting water from the Indus from reaching Pakistan. That era of stability for the water treaty is over. The current treaty is no longer fit for purpose. Since the Indus Waters Treaty was enacted, the world has changed dramatically. Its future, and the stability of the entire Indus Basin, now rests on the willingness of the governments of India and Pakistan to forge a new agreement—one that allows India to use the water it is entitled to while ensuring a collaborative framework grounded not in the divisions of the past, but in the shared environmental and economic challenges of the future. Failure to do so risks turning a river of life into a catalyst for conflict.
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